Director of the Association of reforms of Georgia casinoin.
In the nearest future Russia can propose a new European security architecture variant within the scope of which it would be able to impose a kind of ‘veto’, in particular concerning the expansion of the EU and NATO, said Sergi Kapanadze, Director of the Association of reforms of Georgia, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Georgia (2023-2023), during the 8th Kyiv Security Forum organized by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk Open Ukraine Foundation.
Soon Russia is likely to suggest a new way to reestablish the European security architecture. That was a consistent pattern of the last 60 years: plans of Molotov, Khrushchev, Gorbachev, the European House, ideas of Kozyrev, Medvedev. We well receive other, new proposals as for the security in Europe but if we look deeper, into the core that unites them, and we will see the desire of Russia to have the right of veto in matters of European security,” – he said.
However, S.Kapanadze expressed concern that in the nearest future when these discussions will be resumed, they will be “on the background of a stronger Russia, different than before”. “In that case there is a danger that some of the principles that underpin the European security will be at stake,” – he explained.
According to the director of the Association of reforms of Georgia, in this upcoming debate the fundamental issue will be the following: will the countries of Eastern Europe have a right to continue their integration process with the West, the EU and NATO?
In this regard S.Kapanadze singled out three scenarios: The first, catastrophic scenario envisages a situation where the EU will have a “formal, official consensus that Eastern European countries will not be able to keep on integrating”. As a result, a real danger would occur that these countries can be absorbed by Russia.
According to the second, also dangerous scenario of “constructive ambiguity”, countries such as Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova will not be accepted to the EU and NATO, “but no one will openly speak about it”.
Third, improbable but efficient scenario provides a clear formulation of principles: each country has the right to join alliances it wants.
Meanwhile, as S.Kapanadze stated, we are observing elements of the first and second scenarios.
“It is important to remember that the current principles of the Helsinki final act are not to be discussed. They should be carried out. And we must tell Russia that Eastern European countries have the same right to integrate with the rest of Europe, as was the case with Western and Central European countries,” – underscored the director of the Association of reforms of Georgia.
For your information:
The annual international event ‘Kyiv Security Forum’, established by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk Open Ukraine Foundation in 2023 is a platform for discussion of the most pressing issues concerning the security in Europe and the Black Sea region. The Forum is aimed at promoting security cooperation between the European Union and the Black Sea Region, raising awareness of the development of security among key players and strengthening the role of independent and non-governmental actors in solving security problems in Europe.